Trevor Goodchild
"Well, here we are."
Judge Dread
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Knowing almost nothing about Ukraine I was 99% sure Russia would win on day one just based on the Napoleonic Wars and World War II. Quantity has a quality all its own.
Trevor Goodchild
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Knowing a great deal about the conflict I was actually amazed at how badly Russia fumbled in the early stages (I expected a quick curbstomp like Georgia or the Crimean liberation) but that's completely on me, eight years of time to fortify and plan plus endless ratlines of Western money and materiel actually did count for something back then Not anymore
Vince
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Days after the war broke out some cock sucking lieutenant colonel from the institute for the study of war came to talk to those of us getting ready for company command He declared Russia had already lost cause they hadn't won in 4 days. I asked if maybe we were making assumptions about their doctrine, intent, timeless etc. I got a decisive snort from this genius in response
Trevor Goodchild
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Yes yes, if there's one thing Russians don't know how to do, it's brutal grinding slogs and attrition warfare, we have some real big brains in the West
Judge Dread
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The scenarios narrow over time. Color revolution was their only hope, replace Putin with a western tool like Yeltsin. Putin is too well dug in for that to work, so for Ukraine's government it's negotiate now and cut losses or negotiate later and hope to avoid execution.
Trevor Goodchild
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The 'Kadyrov' scenario is a possibility, where someone on the Ukie side decides they would rather live and flips, either kills or forces the kike cokehead into exile, and consolidates power with Bad Vlad's blessing while becoming his loyal proxy and local hatchet man
Festive Pepe
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There are few people that disgust me more than Zelensky. He is the face of ZOG.
Judge Dread
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Of course the prospects narrow for the losing side, that would be one of many paths to Russian victory. One whose best case I would enjoy as in most cases we get stuck with the kike cokehead retiring to his Florida redoubt.
VikingWays
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I would have thought after Bakhmut your 'Kadyrov' scenario would have played out. So many dying so badly only to lose the position. I know that's a distant memory of a battle that feels a world ago, so maybe there were better times for this, but especially now with Russia advancing like a game of Risk when you only have 1 piece on the board for defense of a particular area, this becomes more plausible by the day.
Kenny Blankenship
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Simplicius had this from his SitRep a few days ago. Supposedly the Kike Kokehead has a Hail Mary offensive attempt planned for the fall
Trevor Goodchild
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Would make perfect sense. Problem (for them) is that the Russians now have air supremacy for all intents and purposes. Hard to mass troops for a blitzkrieg attack when they keep getting Kalibrated
Kenny Blankenship
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Remember the Glorious Greatest Counter Offensive of 2023? When NATOs plan was to send countless armored vehicles and tanks into minefields spanning hundreds of kilometers over and over again, with no air support, while being hammered by artillery and Ka 52s the whole time? That whole thing was a massive whitepill, aside from the outcome, as it was proof positive that the managerial class is afflicted by terminal brainrot and incapable of stopping Zog's steady decline
Vince
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I can understand putting on a brave, optimistic face, but top brass fully believes their own bullshit and they refuse to adjust fire in the face of their obvious, glaring miscalculation
Trevor Goodchild
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NATO's battle plan for the counter-OOF hinged on the assumption that "Russians will abandon their positions and run away when they see Leopard tanks bearing down on them in the field". Not joking about this. We are ruled by retarded women.
Kenny Blankenship
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that’s a problem across the entire regime - you have a managerial/political class that is thoroughly incapable of restraint or self reflection. Instead you have nepotistic midwit zealots who spaz like a severely autistic six year old taking a diarrhea shit when they receive the slightest pushback, either here or overseas.
Vince
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I say top brass but it's actually much worse. You can have top brass believing nonsense but if your colonel and ltc's have a grounded view of things you can act within the intent of higher without getting your soldiers killed But now the propaganda is so complete the brigade and battalions commanders also believe the bullshit. And every colonel wants to be a general (which is a political appointment) so they're natural sycophants
Kenny Blankenship
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the rot has run so deep that the whole tree is about to fall over. Good riddance I say
mothersmurfer
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Um, for the record, one enters Russia's new military cathedral by climbing stairs made of melted down German tanks. fr fr
VikingWays
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Oh so someone watched Iron Man and thought seeing a Leopard tank would be like seeing Tony Stark flying out of the sky shooting rockets in his adamantium space suit. LO-FUCKING-L. "We are ruled by retarded women," might be the quote of the year. I may put that in my bio.
Mister Anthrope
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I am so glad we are being ruled by retarded women. Maybe we will get in a fight with Albania and they'll come over and hand us our ass. I am an accelerationist, after all.
Largo
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Instead Russians actively sought out Abroooooms and Leopards to kill for the bounty (wasn't it a months pay?)
Kenny Blankenship
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Oh it’s worse than that. Apparently the whole NAFO gayop is being taught at West Point as an example of highly effective war propaganda. I could say more but I’ll let the TaliChads do it for me
https://media-proxy.varis.social?url=https://i.poastcdn.org/964e3417f288140488ccd68d97804a3ccf80f2225836bee67998869f8eca6422.avif&Sh-Gravy=WithPotatoes
mousewaffen
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@DEERBLOOD@poa.st @TrevorGoodchild@poa.st he got that job by being a nepotistic fuck. Not for any other quality
Vince
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It's pretty disturbing that it seems without exceptions my peer's solution to healing the rot is more​ rot
Trevor Goodchild
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Unfathomably based and hardcore
Kenny Blankenship
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remember operation Prosperity Guardian? The Houthis pretty much yeeted Zog, as the kids are want to say
dictatordave
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i mean what have they learned at west point that's made them successful in the past 70 years? its one disaster after another
Vince
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No this dude was actually legit at one time but he at some point made a decision to become a cock rider
Trevor Goodchild
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This seems to be a recurring theme in human history, that once a system is terminally gangrenous it is only capable of doubling down with more failure and escalating into more irrational, violent responses
Vince
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I know more than a handful of WP officers, less than a dozen. All but one are women. The one male is a nigger At this point I tell people WP is a girl's school
mothersmurfer
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"Dying countries accumulate laws as dying men accumulate remedies." - some smart dude
Morgthorak the Undead
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NATO is also a weapons selling business. If you're in it, you have to buy US made weapons.
Countermeasures
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Unlike in WWII, the Russians today get to run attrition *efficiently* and *carefully*. 5 times the manpower pool multiplied by a kill/death ratio of 5 (these are both conservative) means certain doom for Ukraine. My instinct is that Team B now understands how fucked things are and the need to get the resources now being wasted in Ukraine redirected to Israel pronto to try and save it. This will require giving the Russians a *really* good deal, ideally one good enough to convince the Russians to limit their support of Iran and Syria. If Donald convinces the Russians to settle this without getting Odessa, they are chumps -- Russia has Team B by the balls, they should squeeze hard. Unfortunately for the Likud Mafia, they won't get their guy into the White House before January, and Team A seems quite willing to run this thing until the end. I predict it's going to be a very hard six months for Ukrainians.
dubbub
☦️
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Biggest joke was when NATO predicted the success chance to be 50%, even though planners are generally overoptimistic. >Yo Zaluzhnyi, why don't you send 150k of your best troops into 5 layers of Russian defenses, you got 50/50 (more like 0.01%) The outcome was clear to anyone who had heard about the Battle of Kursk and knew about Ukraine's firepower disadvantage. I should've bet money.
the best officers I knew were all ROTC I only knew a few ring knockers but they were kinda pussies. like, they could grow out of it but they were very soft coming in
dubbub
☦️
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They hoped for internal Russian problems to manifest, like the Prigozhin rebellion but in earnest. It's the typical corporate Western mentality of "if I want something badly enough and throw enough money at it, it works". The West needs to stop electing idiots in suits, it never occurred to them to just stall Russia out and do what they can with what they were given.
dubbub
☦️
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They should've melted down statues of Lenin, it would be more fitting for a church.
Vince
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That's kinda where they landed with funneling them money and arms, but they turned it into a war of attrition which matches perfectly with Russian doctrine They're so full of ra-ra-'MERICA that they can't conceptualize them having a victory condition that didn't mirror our invasion of Iraq
dubbub
☦️
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The NPP is behind the Surovikin line, no chance. The only shot they have is Lugansk direction, which the Russians never fortified much because it is difficult to turn a breakthrough there into anything of substance. They would need to encircle like a Russian brigade and then hope Russia negotiates for them. Like I said previously, Yom Kippur War.
zoazoa
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Ukrop troop concentrations and barracks deep in the rear are being routinely obliterated by missiles
InvictusManeo
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The GAE: > we don't do attrition, we don't even plan nor consider attrition any longer, we have decided small armies centered around fighting underdeveloped countries and doing some poor and dysfunctional COIN is all that is needed. Everyone else: > LOL , LMAO, GGWP RETARDS.
InvictusManeo
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Ukrainian veterans at some point will storm the palace, get the midget kike comedian and will likely make him cry and squeal like a pig. And after that happens, if I were a western politician or a paid-for-nafoid shill, I would do everything in my power to keep miles between me and any of them. But hopefully they won't ever read my suggestion.
BCE
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A BIG aspect and unknown at the beginning of the SMO was the inherent corruption at the top levels... misdirected funds, substandard equipment and the lack of any -real- leadership (sort of like what the US DotMil is going to be facing shortly). The new guy has been doing a 'clean sweep' that's been considered to be 'Stalinesque' in his approach "Do it right, do it now, or get shot." Thus the massive movement of the General Command Staff and their subordinates/cronies to jail/gulags and the National shifting of their economy to a full time "we're in deep shit!" economy. The propaganda coming out of the Ministries of Lies and Propaganda fail to even acknowledge that there was a binary shift from 'corrupt/ineffective' to 'restored/hyper-productive'. This can be best seen in the approach that the SMO has had towards hitting hardened defensive positions while conserving the maximum amount of lives while limiting casualties... 1) Stay Back, use literal TONS of FAB glide bombs to smash the ever living fuck out of the area. 2) -Right After- the airstrikes on the enemy positions, utilize 'fast mover' motorcycle Infantry brigades to close as fast as possible and overwhelm the still-shocked remaining troops who's bell had just been rung... 3) Then, clear the position as needed using door to door fighting, while -smartly- utilizing drones, smart artillery and AFVs and Tanks that followed on the motorcycles for support. This being the combined arms concept/doctrine that NATO invented, but has hardly ever utilized on a peer to peer basis. The overall maneuver(s) they're employing however, are PURE Soviet Based Concepts... as in the pushing towards a 'hardened defensive position' on both the left and right flanks while hammering the Main Supply Routes (MSRs) with non-stop artillery and FABs to prevent resupply/restock/and reinforcement. Once the Flanks have gotten far enough to the rear, they initiate an envelopment which forms a 'firesack/cauldron' that they then proceed to beat the fuck out of until they surrender. Currently, at the last 'corpse exchange' where the Krainians and the Rus traded Rus Dead for Krainian Dead, the numbers revealed about a 7/8 to 1 (YK to RUS) KIA factor for a three month period. Make of it what you will
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Plotinus Enjoyer
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>Russians will abandon their positions and run away when they see Leopard tanks bearing down on them in the field Well-placed ATGM positions, artillery, drones, gunships etc all say hi
Toaster
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the impression I had at the time was Russia really thought that zelensky would just roll over after their initial assault and when that didn't happen they didn't seem to have a great plan to transition to plan B.